Hurray for Jeremy Corbyn. British politics has suddenly become interesting, actually that is a under statement, British politics has suddenly become fascinating. First reactions from 'commentators' are predictable. The Labour membership has collectively committed suicide, the Conservatives will walk the next election, Labour will tear itself apart etc.
What do I think? Well I think Jeremy Corbyn's election is part of a world wide groundswell of opinion among electorates in developed countries away from blancmange politicians like Our Dave and the alternative Labour leadership candidates. I mean let's face it what does Yvette Cooper actually stand for, what, if anything, does she actually believe in? You don't know? of course you don't because professional politicians like Yvette and Our Dave make very sure that they don't advertise their beliefs and try to be all things to all men. Todays professional politicians are, as I have said before, too afraid of being hated ever to be loved. Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn but at least we all know what he believes in and that is why some people love him and are prepared to fight for him.
I think that Corbyn's election is part of a reaction by the electorate away from blancmange politics and politicians and that is why I cheer it. The success of Nigel Farage and UKIP and now Corbyn's election is a warning to politicians of all parties that there is a movement against 'non confrontational' politics as practised by the Metropolitan elite for the last decade or so towards conviction politicians.
Not just in the UK either. Witness the success of the right wing buffoon Donald Trump in America. In France next year there is a very real possibility that the Presidential elections will be won by the National Front, in Poland a right wing part is poised to take power next year, while in Spain an extreme left wing party has emerged to challenge the established parties and don't mention Greece!
So who in Brit politics are going to be the winners and losers as a result of Jeremy Corbyn's election. Well the biggest winner is of course UKIP. Around 20% of those who voted Conservative at the last election would have voted UKIP if they hadn't been frightened of letting Milliband into No.10. So, all things being equal, I can see UKIP gaining 30 -50 seats at the next election if- and it is a big if - Corbyn remain as leader of the Labour party. Will he do so? Well he has one major piece of luck -in eight months time elections are due to the Scottish Parliament - Corbyn is a great campaigner and a great speaker in the rabble rousing tradition. He could reverse the disastrous collapse in the Scottish Labour party and if he does then he would become very difficult to get rid of. Finally the Liberal party which was virtually dead and buried has been offered a life line. surely the Liberal party is the obvious home for disaffected Champagne socialist and Blairites. Lastly what of the Conservatives. Well It all looks like a walk in the park from here on in for our Dave and his friends but he ought to remember Macmillan's answer to a reporter who asked him what the was afraid of:
"Events my boy, Events' The Old fraud sagely replied.